Lincoln and Gray Clash Over Cost of Living in Redrawn Valley Seat

On Nov. 3, voters in California's 13th Congressional District will select between two experienced political figures with contrasting approaches to economic relief. The contest pits U.S. Rep. Adam Gray against Kevin Lincoln, the former mayor of Stockton. Both candidates agree that affordability is the primary concern for residents. They disagree on the specific policy tools required to address rising costs for gas, food, and utilities.

Lincoln, a former Marine and local government veteran, entered the race after a failed 2024 bid for the 9th District. He initially sought a rematch with Rep. Josh Harder but shifted his focus after Proposition 50 redrew district boundaries. The new District 13 encompasses the agricultural heart of the San Joaquin Valley and extends south along Interstate 5 toward Coalinga, partially overlapping with Fresno. Gray, a former state assemblymember, won the seat two years ago by a margin of 187 votes out of 210,921 ballots cast, defeating John Duarte.

Financial resources currently favor the incumbent. Federal Election Commission data from June 30 indicates Gray has accumulated $4.2 million in contributions and loans. Lincoln has raised $2.2 million. State records from 2023 show the district had 42.3% Democratic registrants and 28.5% Republican registrants before the redistricting changes. The political balance remains tight, with both camps monitoring registration shifts in the final weeks of the campaign.

Lincoln’s campaign is bolstered by a high-profile endorsement from President Donald Trump. In December, the president posted on Truth Social that he gives Lincoln his "Complete and Total Endorsement." Lincoln described the support as making him "honored and thankful" and features the endorsement prominently on his campaign website. Democrats argue that recent economic pressures, including high gas prices and immigration enforcement actions, may weaken the appeal of a candidate backed by the White House.

Lincoln has also produced a "MAGA Majority" video for the National Republican Congressional Committee. The clip highlights his tenure as mayor, his service in the Marine Corps' White House Military Office from 2001 to 2005, and his role as executive pastor at LifeSong Ministries until 2020. He stated in September that he knows how to "grind," "fight," and "win a tough election." His platform centers on restoring home ownership affordability and cutting taxes.

Gray, a Merced native, positions himself as an independent voice rather than a party loyalist. He told the Sacramento Bee that voters want an independent perspective, not a strictly Democratic or Republican one. He serves as a whip for the Blue Dog Coalition, a group of moderate lawmakers. Gray criticized Trump’s deportation policies as "irresponsible, reckless, dangerous." He points to his legislative record, including efforts to reverse Medicaid cuts and limit tariff authority without congressional approval.

The candidates have exchanged specific critiques regarding economic policy. Lincoln accused Gray of voting to raise taxes and claimed the representative "increased the gas tax over 113% a gallon" while serving in the state legislature. Gray counters by highlighting the rise in gasoline and diesel prices since the start of the war with Iran. He also cites his introduction of a measure to reduce regulations on thermal energy as a step toward lowering costs for consumers.

The race will serve as a key indicator of voter sentiment in the valley. Lincoln’s background as a former mayor gives him high name recognition in Stockton, while Gray’s national title may be less familiar to some local residents. The final vote will determine whether the district remains in Democratic hands or shifts back to Republican control.