Satellites Map 9,000 Hectares of New Poppies in Balochistan

Satellite data confirms a massive shift in global opium production toward Pakistan’s southwestern border.

The Taliban banned illicit narcotics in 2022, causing Afghanistan’s output to drop sharply. Yet the ban did not stop farmers. Instead, cultivation moved into neighboring countries. This shift is now visible in high-resolution imagery.

David Mansfield, a UK-based expert on Afghanistan’s illicit drugs industry, led the analysis. He stated that the Taliban ban and instability in the tri-border area created ideal conditions for growth. He described the remote borderlands as a new global center for opium production.

Alcis, a British firm, identified more than 9,000 hectares of poppy cultivation in Balochistan. This area is Pakistan’s largest and poorest province. Most of the fields are concentrated in the districts of Loralai and Killa Abdullah. A former National Assembly member from Killa Abdullah said the cultivation is rampant. He alleged that senior military officials and pro-government power brokers take commissions from growers.

Monawar Hussain, the district’s chief administrative officer, rejected those claims. He said cultivation declined after an eradication campaign last year. However, Alcis imagery from 2026 shows no clear evidence of that eradication.

Farmers explain the shift through economics and survival. One farmer in Killa Abdullah, speaking anonymously, said growers pay bribes to local authorities through influential intermediaries. He alleged that officials sometimes destroy crops on barren land to publicize their efforts when media pressure builds. Lala Jan Kakar, another resident, said drought and flash floods devastated traditional fruit farming. He noted that the demand and income for poppies now exceed those for fruit.

Experts say the surge is driven by Afghan farmers from Kandahar and Helmand. They cross the border to lease land, bringing money and expertise. Kakar said these investors put millions of Pakistani rupees into solar-powered wells. They share profits with local landowners. Poppies can be harvested twice a year. Many farmers doubled their cultivated land in 2026. Mansfield called this a stark indication that much higher cultivation levels should be expected in 2027.

A similar pattern has taken hold in Iran. Afghan farmers work as tenants and sharecroppers in provinces including Sistan-Baluchistan. Satellite imagery from 2026 shows extensive poppy fields there. Some use drip irrigation, a costly investment. Mansfield said this suggests growers who planted in late 2025 expected little risk of eradication. Iranian authorities have been preoccupied with the war against the United States and Israel since late February. This distraction has left the 2026 crop largely untouched.

Mansfield noted a shift from mixed farming to large-scale poppy monoculture. He observed that farmers are devoting large plots entirely to poppies. In Afghanistan, production is rebounding in northeastern Badakhshan Province. This area accounts for around half of the national output. Southwestern cultivation almost doubled between 2025 and 2026. Mansfield warned that a Taliban directive barring home searches without a court order may signal tolerance. If farmers read this as a green light, Afghanistan could see a dramatic rise in opium production in 2027.

Armed groups are also involved. Mansfield said these groups compete for tax revenues from the drugs trade. They also engage in people smuggling and trade in fuel and minerals. The expansion of poppy fields in Balochistan and Sistan-Baluchistan continues to reshape the regional economic and security landscape.