Hanson: Iran and Economy Will Define Trump's Final Two Years

Historian Victor Davis Hanson believes two factors will determine the success of President Donald Trump's remaining two years in office: the U.S. relationship with Iran and domestic economic performance. In an article for The Free Press published Wednesday, Hanson argued that the recent midterm election results will not severely limit the president's ability to pursue his foreign policy agenda.

Democrats secured control of both the House and Senate on Tuesday. Their victories included wins in Texas, North Carolina, Ohio, and Kansas. These new majorities are set to take office in January. This shift creates a divided government for the rest of Trump's term. A report from Reuters indicated that public frustration over the war in Iran and rising living costs drove the Democratic gains.

Hanson, a senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, identified Iran's nuclear program as a primary challenge. He stated that the president's legacy depends on whether the economy sees rapid growth and whether the administration achieves Iranian denuclearization quickly. Despite the congressional shift, Hanson expects Trump to use executive orders for domestic matters while retaining freedom in foreign affairs.

The new Democratic leadership is expected to block judicial and Cabinet nominations. Hanson compared this Republican setback to the midterm defeats faced by Presidents Bill Clinton in 1994 and Barack Obama in 2010. Trump has accepted the election results and said he is willing to collaborate with Democrats. However, he maintains that he will veto any legislation he finds unacceptable.

The Senate's Democratic majority allows them to confirm senior administration officials and federal judges. This provides a direct method to block appointments. Congress also controls federal spending, which serves as another mechanism to pressure the White House. Overriding a presidential veto requires a two-thirds vote in both chambers. This high threshold gives the president leverage in legislative negotiations.

Yonah Jeremy Bob of The Jerusalem Post argued that Democrats could use investigations and delayed appointments to constrain the administration's handling of Iran. Bob urged Israel to engage with both the president and congressional Democrats regarding security concerns. In a separate election night interview, Hanson warned that Democrats might weaken their position by overreaching after their victories.

Hanson cited the political backlash against earlier Republican efforts to remove President Clinton as an example of strategic miscalculation. He noted that the election of candidates he views as too far left, such as Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and James Talarico in Texas, could push future Democratic presidential contenders toward more progressive positions ahead of the 2028 election.