Jace Yarbrough Wins Redrawn Texas District in Narrow Margin

Republican Jace Yarbrough defeated Democrat Dan Barrios in Texas's 32nd congressional district, securing the only Republican flip in the state during the November midterms. Yarbrough captured 51.5 percent of the vote to Barrios's 48.5 percent, a margin that analysts described as tighter than the district's design suggested.

The victory stands out against a backdrop of losses for the party across the state. Democrats won statewide offices for the first time in 32 years and retained four congressional seats that were recently redrawn to advantage Republicans. Texas Republicans will enter the next congressional term in January with 24 House seats, down by one from the previous cycle, while Democrats will hold 14 seats in the chamber.

The 32nd district was reconfigured by the Texas state legislature in August 2025. The new map shifted the district's geography eastward from Dallas to include several Republican-dominated counties, a change prompted by President Donald Trump's call for redistricting in states led by his party. This redesign lowered the share of Latino, Black, and Asian voters, which previously constituted about 60 percent of the district's population.

Matthew Wilson, a professor at Southern Methodist University who resides in the district, attributed Yarbrough's success to a strategic shift in messaging. Wilson noted that Yarbrough moved away from the social and cultural issues emphasized during the primary toward economic concerns such as lowering prices. Wilson stated that Yarbrough realized those cultural themes would not resonate as strongly in the fall campaign.

Wilson also cited the district's demographic makeup as a key factor, noting it was drawn to be heavily Republican. However, he observed that a uniform Democratic swing affected most congressional districts in the state, making the race closer than initially projected.

In other parts of the state, Republican redistricting efforts struggled against a shift among Latino voters. In the 9th district in Houston, Democrat Leticia Gutierrez won nearly 58 percent of the vote against Republican Alex Mealer. Gutierrez, who campaigned with a focus on Spanish-language outreach and pocketbook issues, stated that many registered Latino citizens do not vote if they do not hear the message in their native language.

Similar results occurred in South Texas. Democrat Johnny Garcia defeated Republican Carlos De La Cruz by more than 10 percentage points in the San Antonio suburbs. Along the border, incumbent Democrat Henry Cuellar won nearly 66 percent of the vote in his district, while Representative Vicente Gonzalez won by more than 15 percentage points in the 34th district.