Lula wins Brazil runoff with 51 percent

Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva secured a record fourth non-consecutive term as Brazil's president on Sunday. The 80-year-old leftist defeated right-wing Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in the run-off. Electoral authorities declared Lula the winner once approximately 98.76 percent of ballots were counted. He received more than 51 percent of the vote, while Bolsonaro captured 48 percent.

The result came after a tight final stretch where polls showed the two men virtually tied. Three weeks prior, Bolsonaro led after the first round. He finished with 47.03 percent of the vote compared to Lula's 45.16 percent. That gap represented 2.2 million votes. Lula focused on winning back voters who abstained in the first round, emphasizing cost of living issues and the continuation of his social programs.

Counting began on Sunday evening with Bolsonaro briefly in the lead. Lula pulled ahead as results arrived from the northeast, a traditional stronghold for his Workers' Party. Bolsonaro drew support from the south, southeast, and centre-west regions. No other candidate in modern Brazilian history has lost the first round and then won the run-off.

A late decision to extend voting hours complicated the final results. Both campaigns requested additional time. Lula's team accused local officials of cutting public transport to hinder lower-income voters. Bolsonaro's campaign cited heavy rain and flooding. In Minas Gerais, regional courts reported that 349 polling locations lost electricity, though machines operated on backup batteries according to local media.

Voting was scheduled to end at 5 pm Brasilia time. Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin ordered stations to remain open until 7 pm. The order arrived after some locations had already closed and shut down their machines. Zanin later clarified that closed stations would not reopen. Confusion ensued, and some voters were turned away despite the extension.

Bolsonaro pledged to annul the vote, accusing Zanin of judicial malfeasance. He noted that Zanin had previously served as Lula's personal lawyer and was appointed to the Supreme Court in 2023. Bolsonaro told supporters, "It is impossible to recognise the results of the election." Brazil's Federal Police are investigating transport disruptions in five states. A court in Salvador ordered the arrest of the city's transport secretary over claims he directed bus service cuts.

Turnout differences may have influenced the outcome. Andrei Roman, head of AtlasIntel, cited a drop in abstention as a factor in Lula's win. An estimated 33.4 million Brazilians, or 21 percent of the electorate, stayed home in the first round. That was the highest abstention rate in a general election since 1998. Lula also promised free public transport on weekends to appeal to his working-class base.

The result affects US President Donald Trump's Latin America strategy, where right-wing candidates have recently won. Reuters reported that State Department officials pushed for sanctions against Brazil to weaken Lula. Trump said on Sunday, "I don't want to get into that, but we are watching." In his victory speech, Lula said he had to "overcome interference coming from the outside." He added, "The election was a defeat for denialism. It was a defeat for lies."