33 Million Brazilians Sat Out First Round as Factory Jobs Vanished

A record 33 million Brazilians abstained from voting in the first round of the presidential election held this month. That figure marks the highest level of non-voting since 1998. The absence of these voters is linked to a fundamental change in how many Brazilians earn their incomes. The industrial base that traditionally supported the left is shrinking, while the service sector expands.

The municipality of Osasco illustrates this shift. Once a major hub for metal, chemical, and textile factories, the city has been dubbed a local "Silicon Valley." Five shopping malls and numerous delivery app companies have replaced the vanished manufacturing plants. Gilberto Almazan, who leads a metalworkers' union there, notes that the traditional industrial working class has largely disappeared. He describes the current union movement as stuck in the "Middle Ages."

Osasco supported President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in 2022. This month, the local vote moved to Flávio Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro won the national first round, and every first-round winner since 1989 has become president. Almazan argues that many workers now prefer the flexibility of app-based jobs, a trend he calls "Uber-isation," over the collective action associated with Lula. Richard Lapper, a biographer of both main candidates, states that Brazil industrialized late and deindustrialized early, making these economic effects more acute.

Despite unemployment reaching a record low and Brazil being removed from the UN Hunger Map, many voters feel the strain of high prices and household debt. Robson, a 53-year-old civil servant, blames government mismanagement for heavy taxes. Tairine, a hot dog seller who previously abstained, now plans to vote for Bolsonaro, citing a lack of change since Lula returned. Gisele Bonfim, a lawyer who voted for Lula in 2022, says Bolsonaro offers the hope of change.

Flávio Bolsonaro proposes cutting government spending and ministries while retaining some of Lula's welfare programs. He faces corruption accusations, which he denies. Lula's campaign is responding with large street rallies. One event in São Paulo drew approximately one million people, according to the campaign. Lula, 80, has also used social media to counter claims about his age, referring to himself as the "king of selfies."

In poorer areas, Lula's welfare record still carries weight. In Maré, a large favela in Rio, Lula won despite above-average abstention. Vitoria, an 18-year-old mother earning under 300 pounds a month, supports Lula for his minimum wage increases and free medicines. She fears Bolsonaro's plan to designate the Comando Vermelho gang a terrorist organization, citing police raids last year that killed more than 130 people.

Evangelical churches, attended by about a quarter of Brazilians, are filling social gaps with childcare and food services. Pastor Silas Malafaia, who is being investigated for allegedly obstructing Jair Bolsonaro's coup trial, says Flávio Bolsonaro shares the church's values on family and abortion. The first round appeared to be a rejection of the incumbent rather than a strong endorsement of his rival. The runoff takes place this Sunday.