Ontario Gasoline Prices Predicted to Rise by Six Cents Per Litre

Energy market fluctuations are set to affect Ontario drivers this weekend, with gasoline prices expected to increase by six cents per litre. The shift follows a period of volatile trading driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

Dan McTeague, head of Canadians for Affordable Energy, provided his projections after the energy markets closed on Friday, Oct. 30. McTeague stated that movements in the energy markets are typically reflected at the pumps two days later. He anticipates that gasoline prices will remain unchanged from Friday to Saturday before the increase takes effect on Sunday. This adjustment would place the morning peak price for regular-grade gasoline at 179.9 cents per litre in the Greater Toronto Area.

Diesel prices are expected to follow a different trajectory over the same period. McTeague predicts a four-cent per litre drop on Saturday, followed by a three-cent per litre rise on Sunday. By Sunday morning, diesel prices in the GTA are projected to reach 249.9 cents per litre. He expects both gasoline and diesel prices to remain stable through Monday and Tuesday.

McTeague noted that warm fall weather has helped keep diesel prices lower than usual. He explained that diesel demand typically rises in colder months, which usually drives prices up. The current mild temperatures have mitigated this seasonal increase, keeping the fuel more affordable for drivers during this period.

The recent price volatility stems from the conflict between the U.S. and Israel and Iran. Hostilities began on Feb. 28 when the U.S. and Israel launched an attack on Iran. In response, Iran targeted Middle Eastern countries hosting U.S. troops and attacked shipping vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. The International Energy Agency reports that approximately 25 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil trade and about 19 per cent of liquefied natural gas pass through this waterway.

The U.S. retaliated by blockading Iranian vessels and ports. These blockades have been lifted and reinstated multiple times as fighting continues. The disruption has reduced the supply of oil reaching global markets, leading to higher prices. Because Canadian oil is traded on the global market in U.S. dollars, its value fluctuates with world prices even when purchased domestically.

McTeague advised drivers in the GTA to wait until the evening to purchase fuel. He explained that gas stations lower their profit margins after 6 p.m., which results in lower prices for consumers. He specifically recommended that drivers avoid buying gas before 6 p.m. in the Greater Toronto Area. He also noted that prices are generally lower outside major cities, suggesting that filling up on the way out of town can save money.