Serbia votes as students seek to end 14-year ruling party grip

Serbians went to the polls on Sunday to choose their next parliament, a vote that political scientists call the most competitive in 14 years. The election pits the incumbent Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) against the Student List, a coalition born from a nearly two-year protest movement. While the SNS holds power, recent polls suggest the challengers could capture more than 40 percent of the vote, a threshold that would force a new government or a fragile coalition.

The campaign finale for the Student List took place in Belgrade on Thursday evening, drawing thousands of supporters. Many attendees had walked for days from various regions of the country to reach the capital, a journey intended to demonstrate solidarity. Arsa Stojanovic, a biology student, told the crowd that the walkers visited villages and neighborhoods across Serbia and found widespread support. Aleksandar Cupic, a transport engineering professor and candidate, described the atmosphere as smelling like freedom. The rally ended with a traditional circle dance, or kolo.

The movement’s momentum stems from a specific tragedy: the collapse of a concrete canopy at the Novi Sad railway station in November 2024, which killed 16 people. Students framed the disaster as a symbol of institutional failure and corruption. They positioned the election as a chance to demand accountability and to set aside traditional ideological and foreign-policy divisions that have long defined Serbian politics.

The ruling SNS held a separate closing rally a few kilometers away, emphasizing stability and prosperity. The party framed the election as a fight for sovereignty, accusing opponents of serving foreign interests. Former President Aleksandar Vucic told supporters that opponents had tried to destroy the country on foreign orders and had attacked the party with billions of euros in funds.

Violence marred the final week of the campaign. The independent monitoring group CRTA recorded 116 incidents of physical violence or verbal threats, including attacks on campaigners and attempts to seize banners. CRTA noted that opposition activists faced surveillance and police questioning, while police were sometimes slow to protect them. The group stated that the campaign was not free or fair, citing a narrowing of freedoms.

Media coverage skewed heavily toward the government. CRTA found that nearly three-quarters of national television airtime went to government representatives. More than 80 percent of coverage regarding the Student List was negative. The Balkan Investigative Reporting Network published testimony from a former SNS member describing pressure on public-sector employees to deliver votes. Anonymous sources told Deutsche Welle that voters were offered between 30 and 150 euros, or family holiday packages, to support the SNS.

Authorities have warned of post-election turbulence, claiming that students aided by foreign intelligence services are preparing street violence. Several individuals have been arrested on suspicion of plotting disturbances for election night. Dusan Spasojevic, a political scientist, said a decisive win for either side would be best, but polls point to a narrow margin. He added that a narrow SNS victory would almost certainly be contested, as the movement has vowed to defend every vote.

The European Union is watching closely. An EU Commission spokesperson noted that key recommendations on improving Serbia's electoral framework remain unimplemented. The spokesperson stressed that democracy and the rule of law are central to Serbia's accession process, a status the country has held since 2012. The EU hopes its stance will help prevent escalation and persuade authorities to accept the results.