Analysts Project Third U.S.-Iran War Phase After Midterms

Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst and former intelligence official, stated that a renewed war between the United States, Israel, and Iran appears almost inevitable following the U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. He warned that this third phase of conflict could be more destructive than the two previous rounds of fighting.

The conflict has already claimed more than 7,000 lives in Iran, according to Western non-governmental organizations. Lebanese media report over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. The toll includes 21 U.S. service members, mostly killed in Iranian strikes on Gulf bases, and more than 70 Israelis. Casualties have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen.

The United States and Israel have fought Iran in two separate wars over the past 18 months. The first began in June 2025 with strikes on nuclear facilities, lasted 12 days, and ended in a fragile ceasefire. Fighting resumed in February after a large U.S. military buildup, opening with Israeli strikes on Iranian leadership, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Citrinowicz, who works with the Institute for National Security Studies, expects the next round to target Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and undersea internet lines in the Strait of Hormuz. He also raised the possibility that Iran could use its land army for limited attacks on Gulf states hosting U.S. bases, such as Kuwait and Bahrain, to inflict damage on the American economy.

Since the summer truce collapsed, the U.S. has blockaded Iranian ports while Iran has targeted commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz. On Thursday, President Donald Trump accused Iran of trying to inflate oil prices before the midterms. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War said these attacks aim to pressure Washington into meeting Iranian demands for sanctions relief, reparations, and the release of frozen assets.

Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have spent weeks trying to restart talks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution warned that retaliation would likely come from proxies such as the Houthis and Hezbollah, potentially targeting airports. Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace noted that Trump lacks a clear goal and that no military knockout punch will force Iran to capitulate.

The New York Times reports the Pentagon is drafting a new battle plan, though it is unknown if Trump will approve it. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spoken of finishing the job and faces a close election in the coming days. Citrinowicz said a widening crisis could help Netanyahu stay in power by enabling an emergency unity government.