Democrats poised to take House as Trump faces record-low approval

President Donald Trump is facing a steep climb in the midterm elections. He won the 2024 election largely on a promise to lower prices, but consumer costs have continued to rise since he took office. His approval ratings have hit record lows, and voters are increasingly blaming his administration for high energy and goods prices. This economic strain, combined with a war in Iran and tariff policies, has created a hostile environment for Republican candidates.

The economy has split sharply. Wealthy investors have benefited from stock portfolios dominated by artificial intelligence companies, while many working Americans struggle with inflation that outpaces wages. Interest rates remain high, making home and car purchases difficult. A recent NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found that 38% of respondents said their economic situation has worsened, while only 15% said it has improved. Another 44% reported their finances have stayed mostly the same.

Historical patterns favor the Democrats this year. Since World War II, the president's party has gained seats in the House during midterm elections only twice. When a president's approval rating falls below 50%, as Trump's has, his party has lost an average of 35 seats. Democrats have also performed well in recent special elections and 2025 off-year contests. Polls now show Democrats are favored to win control of the House and are within striking distance of taking the Senate, a position that seemed unlikely at the start of the cycle.

However, structural factors may limit the scope of Democratic victories. The Cook Political Report identifies about 30 fewer competitive districts this year than in 2018. Mid-decade redistricting has also provided Republicans with an estimated eight-seat advantage. An NPR analysis found that Republican-led state legislatures secured this edge after a series of map fights. Trump explicitly encouraged these state-level changes to help the party's prospects.

The Democratic Party faces its own challenges. While the party is not viewed positively by all voters, it is currently the preferred option for those seeking a check on the administration. A distinct group of self-identified democratic socialists is highly engaged in this election. In the latest poll, 44% of respondents said their vote was against Trump, compared to 21% who said it was for him. This group may turn out in large numbers, though internal conflicts over ideology may emerge as the 2028 presidential primaries approach.

Republican turnout will be a critical variable. Trump has been campaigning in red states to rally his base. If Democratic voters fail to show up in large numbers, the Senate could remain competitive. A small Democratic gain of one or two seats could expand to six or seven if turnout is low among Republicans. Trump is already preparing for potential disputes over the results, a tactic he used after the 2020 election.

Republican candidates have largely stopped mentioning Trump in their advertisements, a shift from the heavy references seen during the primaries. Party officials privately describe the president as a double-edged sword. He remains essential for mobilizing the base but is toxic to swing voters. His support among the voters who crossed over to him in 2024 has dropped significantly, driven by economic anxiety and the ongoing conflict in Iran.

Election night results may be delayed in key districts. Because of narrow margins, particularly in Senate races, party control of the chamber may not be known for days or even weeks. A quarter of Republican poll respondents said their candidate likely should not accept the results if the election is close. Most voters across party lines believe their states will conduct fair elections, but the possibility of lingering uncertainty remains a factor in the final days of the campaign.