120 seats in play as polls show no clear majority

Polls indicate that 120 seats are effectively up for grabs in Israel's upcoming election, a figure that has drawn sharp attention from Arab media outlets across the region. With neither of the two major political blocs holding a guaranteed path to a parliamentary majority, the electoral performance of Arab-led parties is now the central variable in determining the next government.

The focus falls primarily on the Joint List, an alliance of Hadash, Ta'al, and Balad, and Mansour Abbas's Ra'am party. Regional coverage suggests that these groups hold the balance of power in a fragmented field. The question is no longer who leads the polls, but which bloc can secure the necessary coalition partners.

Egypt's Alghad TV featured remarks by Hadash politician Shadi Shweiri, who framed the vote as a rare chance for Arab citizens to press national demands. Shweiri warned that the choice is not between two good options but between the bad and the worse. He argued that Arab parties should not support any candidate seeking to replace Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but only one willing to halt military operations and improve economic conditions for Arab citizens.

"Our situation is that we are being asked to choose between the bad and the worse, rather than between the good and the better," Shweiri said. He added that the right to vote was a fundamental condition for Israel's acceptance into the United Nations in 1948, not an act of goodwill by the state.

Iranian officials have taken a different stance. Esmail Baghaei, the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman, told reporters on Monday that the election outcome makes no difference to Tehran. "I do not agree with elections in the occupied territories at all; there is competition between different gangs to commit more evil," Baghaei said. He described the contest as one where the most important slogan is that one candidate can commit more crimes than another.

Despite that official dismissal, Iranian state-affiliated media, including the Tasnim News Agency, are tracking Likud's chances closely. The coverage suggests Tehran is monitoring the internal dynamics of the Israeli camp even while publicly downplaying the vote's significance to its own foreign policy calculations.

Qatar-owned Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reported on fears of a political stalemate that could leave Netanyahu leading a caretaker government. Journalist Beirut Hammoud analyzed polls showing declining international support for Israel. She argued that opposition politicians differ from the prime minister only in their methods of managing the conflict, accusing his administration of leading a government of ruin.

Lebanon-based Al-Khanadeq, a pro-Hezbollah outlet, published an analysis alleging that Netanyahu's campaign is portraying the Arab vote as a liability. The article pointed to AI-generated material showing Gadi Eisenkot alongside Mansour Abbas. The author claimed this strategy targets the soft right, aiming to deter Jewish voters who want Netanyahu gone but hesitate at the prospect of a government based on Arab partnership.

The analysis also cited efforts by the Central Elections Committee to disqualify Arab-majority parties. It noted the deployment of 2,000 activists in an alleged attempt to deter Arab citizens from voting. The outlet presented these moves as evidence of Netanyahu's efforts to evade the consequences of the electoral process.

The Palestinian site Al Quds noted the timing of the Israeli vote alongside the United States' midterms. Dr. Ahmed Youseff, a former adviser to Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, argued that an Eisenkot victory could reopen international diplomacy. However, he cautioned that realistic assessment requires distinguishing between hopes for accountability and certain outcomes, noting that the true value of the elections will be measured by concrete steps toward policy change.