Trump Staff Weighs Deal With Opposition As Netanyahu's Lead Shrinks

White House advisers are drafting a strategy to engage with the Israeli opposition bloc should Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu lose the upcoming election, according to US officials speaking to Axios. The plan reflects a growing consensus within the administration that a post-Netanyahu government could offer new opportunities for cooperation, even as the current prime minister remains a familiar figure to the president.

One Trump adviser described Netanyahu as "the devil [Trump] knows," a sentiment that highlights the internal debate over the US endorsement. Many of the president's closest aides reportedly opposed the decision to back Netanyahu, arguing that the White House should have remained neutral in the race. Vice President JD Vance echoed this cautious stance this week, telling reporters, "I'm not attacking Bibi Netanyahu. I'm not endorsing Bibi Netanyahu. I think the president's endorsement is ultimately what matters."

Tensions over Israeli policy are already visible within the administration. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack criticized the Netanyahu government’s military operations in Syria, calling strikes on a base in the northern Idlib province an "unnecessary escalation that does not advance regional stability." While Secretary of State Marco Rubio maintains a closer relationship with the prime minister, his team believes Israel could do more to strengthen Lebanon’s government. They have also expressed frustration with what they view as a failure to curb settler attacks in the West Bank.

The political shift is quantified in the latest Maariv poll released ahead of the October 27 vote. The opposition bloc now holds a lead of 54 seats, while Netanyahu’s bloc has fallen to 48. The survey indicates that 60% of respondents prefer a unity government if no clear majority emerges, compared to 23% who favor a second election. Among those supporting a unity government, 33% want a candidate from the opposition to lead, while only 19% prefer Netanyahu. Another 8% support the idea regardless of who is in charge.

In a direct head-to-head matchup for the prime minister role, Benny Gantz’s rival, Eisenkot, leads with 49% support against 41% for the incumbent. The poll suggests a electorate that is increasingly open to change, forcing the Trump team to prepare for a scenario where their traditional ally in Jerusalem may no longer hold the balance of power in the Knesset.