Trump's Midterm Push: Rallies, Distance, and Low Approval
As polls open, the president's active campaigning contrasts with his 35% job approval and persistent fraud claims.
By Bianca Shevchenko ·
It is Election Day, Tuesday, November 3, 2026, and voters across the nation are heading to the polls to decide the balance of power in Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's second term. All 435 seats in the U.S. House and 35 seats in the U.S. Senate are up for grabs, alongside 36 governorships. The Associated Press describes the day as a referendum on the administration, with many voters citing high prices and an unpopular war with Iran as key factors in their choices.
President Trump has been heavily involved in the campaign, holding dozens of rallies in recent days. His most recent event took place on Sunday in Salina, Kansas, where he urged supporters to treat the vote as if his name were on the ballot. His campaign schedule included stops in Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas, reflecting a strategy to energize the base in competitive districts. However, many Republican candidates kept a deliberate distance from the president during the final weeks, a tactic observed across various battleground states.
The president's polling numbers provide context for this cautious approach. According to AP-NORC polling, 35% of U.S. adults approve of Trump's job performance, while 25% approve of his handling of the economy. About seven in ten Americans say the country is heading in the wrong direction, and most blame the president for high prices. These figures stand in contrast to the enthusiasm displayed at his rallies, where supporters like Mark Barker of Palm Beach Gardens, Florida, expressed strong confidence in the administration's work.
Despite the high energy of the campaign, Trump has continued to make claims about voting fraud that experts and officials have called false. He has asserted that noncitizens vote in large numbers, a claim that has driven legal and administrative actions by his administration. The Justice Department has threatened to prosecute local election officials, leading to concerns about interference and intimidation. In Alaska and California, the administration filed lawsuits related to voting certification and ballot handling, adding a layer of legal complexity to the election administration process.
The legal battles have reached the courts, with a federal judge temporarily barring the administration from carrying out a plan to prevent noncitizen voting on Monday. Critics argue this move risks disenfranchising eligible voters and infringes on states' authority. In California, a judge ordered the administration to stop demanding that officials segregate ballots cast by people on lists of suspected noncitizens. These decisions have created uncertainty for election workers and voters alike, as the U.S. Postal Service added staff and hours to ensure mail ballots are counted on time.
Republican strategists are bracing for the possibility of losing the House while fighting to hold the Senate. RNC Chairman Joe Gruters stated that everything depends on turnout, asserting that if Republicans turn out their voters, they will win. Democrats, meanwhile, are described as cautiously optimistic. DCCC Chair Rep. Suzan DelBene noted that the American people are angry and want change, a sentiment shared by voters like James Moore, a librarian in Raleigh, North Carolina, who cited higher taxes and healthcare costs as primary concerns.
The financial scale of the 2026 elections is expected to be the largest in history. Republican committees outraised and outspent Democratic committees, aided by Trump-affiliated groups and significant contributions from Elon Musk. However, at the candidate level, Democrats outraised their opponents. Analysis of AdImpact data by the Associated Press shows that 88.1% of Republican general election TV ad spending went to states and districts Trump won in 2024, including more than $850 million in areas where he won by ten points or more.
The stakes of the midterm election are high for both parties. If Democrats win even one chamber, investigations and possible impeachment proceedings become likely. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries has outlined a 100-day agenda focused on the cost of living and oversight if his party takes the majority. A strong Democratic night would also boost potential 2028 candidates such as Gavin Newsom, JB Pritzker, and Pete Buttigieg, while potentially complicating the path for Vice President JD Vance. Republicans have tried to beat the historical midterm pattern of seat loss through redistricting, but new maps in states like Florida and Ohio may not vote as drawn.
As polls open, the early vote numbers are already significant. More than 57 million people had already voted as of Monday, surpassing the early vote total from four years ago in many closely watched states. The U.S. Senate races include 13 battlegrounds, with Maine rated as a toss-up by all four major race rating groups. In the governor's races, Democrats are defending five governorships in states Trump won in 2024, while Republicans defend two in states Harris won. The outcome of these races will determine whether Democrats can hold a majority of governorships for the first time in two decades.
Voters in various states are casting their ballots under different schedules, with polls opening as early as 6 a.m. in some areas and closing as late as 9 p.m. in others. The results will shape the legislative agenda for the next two years, influencing policy on the economy, foreign affairs, and domestic oversight. Wall Street is watching the outcome closely, as Reuters notes that results could add to investor concerns about AI spending and debt ceiling negotiations. The day's proceedings will provide a clear signal of the public's sentiment on the direction of the country.
The election also highlights the shifting dynamics of the Republican party, with some candidates distancing themselves from the president to appeal to moderate voters. In Kansas, a reliably Republican state, the Senate race has become central to the fight for control, with the state's governor's race also seen as competitive. In Georgia, the Senate race features former Governor Roy Cooper against former RNC chair Michael Whatley, a matchup that reflects the party's internal tensions. The diversity of candidates and issues on the ballot ensures that the results will offer a nuanced picture of the electorate's priorities.
